SB Nation Seattle - Bracketology 2012: With St. Bonaventure's Win, Washington's Tournament Lives Hanging By A Thread

Bracketology 2012: Washington's Tournament Lives Hanging By A Thread

2012-03-11T19:49:37Z

With the St. Bonaventure Bonnies dismantling the Xavier Musketeers 67-56 to take the title in the Atlantic 10 Championship game Sunday afternoon, the chances of the Washington Huskies making the 2012 NCAA tournament became that much worse, leaving them dangerously close to falling off the bubble.

Washington was looking great in the Pac-12 Championship until they fell apart late in the game against the Oregon State Beavers Thursday, leaving them on the outside looking in in most bracketologists predictions, including SB Nation's Chris Dobbertean.

The selection committee for the tournament usually shines in the favor of regular season conference champions, especially from the big six conferences, which is one big thing they have going for them. But with their weak schedule (no victoires over teams with an RPI of 50 or higher) and high number of other schools with similar outputs, you can easily make a case for them not making the tourney as well.

With the Selection Show only a few hours away, just where will the Huskies end up? The NCAA or NIT tournament?

For more discussion on the Huskies, head over to the UW Dawg Pound. For more on Bracketology and college basketball in general make sure you check out SB Nation's dedicated college basketball hub. Pretty please. With sugar on top.

Bracketology 2012: The Long, Hard Fall of the Oregon Ducks

2012-03-11T17:50:46Z

After their one point loss to the Colorado Buffaloes sealed their 2012 Pacific Life Pac-12 Tournament fate, the Oregon Ducks became another victim of the fickle beast that is conference tournament week.

a 22-9 season including 13-5 in conference is good enough to make Oregon around the 10th team outside of the tournament in almost everyone's bracket. They have a RPI of 62 according to ESPN, more than half their wins coming on the road and all under the guidance of first year coach Dana Altman. An 11-5 record over their last 15 games, and a single point from Colorado will more than likely keep them from the dance. As is life.

Oregon's season will not be over though as they will be assuredly heading to the NIT this season, though I'm sure they'd like to be playing elsewhere. Their squad will return a number of players next season and have the experience of this season's success under their belt. Hopefully it can get them into the Dance next season.

For more on the Ducks, head over to Addicted to Quack to get in on the discussion and get your voice heard. For more on bracketology and the NCAA Tournament in general, please make sure to check out SB Nation's dedicated NCAA basketball hub.

Bracketology 2012: Gonzaga Drops To No. 8 Seed, Washington Out In Latest Bracket

2012-03-11T16:51:49Z

Chris Dobbertean has been bust crunching the numbers and getting the order set for his latest bracketology for the 2012 NCAA Tournament, and unfortunately for the greater Northwest area their teams are dropping like flies as the possible squads making the big dance may have whittled down to just one.

That one team would be the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who remain a lock to make the tournament in the latest bracket. Interestingly enough they've fallen two spots since our last bracket was published, dropping from the No. 6 seed previously down to a No. 8 seed currently, possibly signaling a bit of a lack in confidence in the Bulldogs this season.

As for the Washington Huskies, their loss to Oregon State in the Pac-12 tournament will likely be the deal-sealer on their cinderella status, currently sitting as one of the 'next four out' sitting behind seven other teams that would make the tourney ahead of them. What a difference a game makes.

For more on bracketology and the NCAA tournament in general, please check out SB Nation's dedicated college basketball hub.

Bracketology 2012: Washington Huskies Just Miss NCAA Tournament According To Latest NCAA Predictions

2012-03-11T11:00:22Z

There are 68 teams that make it into the NCAA tournament and according to the latest NCAA RPI, Rating Percentage Index, numbers, which are based off of team wins, losses and strength of schedule, the Washington Huskies come in at No. 69, just missing the big dance.

The Huskies finished the season with a 21-10 record and were 14-4 in the Pac-12. When the Pac-12 Conference tournament started, they were given the No. 1 seed, earning a first-round by. They were set to face the No. 9 seeded Oregon State Beavers in the quarterfinals and were defeated in their first tournament game by a score of 86-84. That game likely made the difference between making it into the NCAA tournament and not making it for the Huskies.

The Weber State Wildcats (24-6, 14-2 Big Sky) and the Huskies swapped spots in this latest RPI ranking. Huskies fans may not like the fact hat their team isn't likely to make it into the tournament and according to The New York Times' Nate Silver believes that using RPI is the wrong way to pick teams that make it into the tournament.

The problem, in turns out, is not that computer rankings in general are incapable of perceiving their talent: it's that R.P.I. is the wrong system. Missouri, 16th in the R.P.I. rankings, was instead rated anywhere from the fifth to ninth by the more reliable systems. Cincinnati rated as high as 20th in one system - much better than its R.P.I. rank of 58. And the other systems see Kansas as a No. 1 seed, as most analysts do, while the R.P.I. rankings do not.

It will be announced tomorrow, Selection Sunday, which teams make it in and which teams don't. Washington is certainly on the bubble, but Huskies fans may not want to hold their breaths.

For more on the Huskies, head to UW Dawg Pound.

Bracketology 2012: Washington's "Who To Root For" List, With Updates

2012-03-10T23:48:11Z

The Washington Huskies NCAA Tournament lives are hanging by a thread. By many accounts, their loss in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament to Oregon State has sealed their fate as a Dance snub and if the selections were made right now, it might not go Washington's way. That said, there are still some moving parts out there and Percy Allen of the Seattle Times' Husky Hoops blog compiled a list of teams to root for today and tomorrow in the hopes the Dawgs can somehow sneak in.

Per Allen:

--- Saint Louis and Xavier: They meet today in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10. It doesn't really matter who wins, although a Billikens' victory may provide a residual boost for UW. Whoever emerges must knock off No. 4 seed St. Bonaventure on Sunday in the title game. The Bonnies are 88 in the RPI and would steal a berth from a bubble team such as UW.

UPDATE - Xavier got the win this afternoon, and will move on to play St Bonaventure on Sunday. You must now root for the Musketeers to beat St Bonaventure tomorrow.

--- Long Beach State: The 49ers play UC Santa Barbara at 7 p.m. Saturday for the Big West Tournament title. Initially I thought a Gauchos win would be advantageous for Huskies because they could claim a victory against a NCAA tournament-bound team. However, LBS is 37 in the RPI and if it loses, it will likely steal an at-large berth.

Watch for that tonight.

--- Vanderbilt: The Commodores play Ole Miss at 12:30 p.m. Saturday in the SEC Tournament semifinals. According to Lunardi, the Rebels are the sixth team outside the NCAA tournament and need a pair of wins to steal a spot into the dance.

UPDATE - Vanderbilt got the win, 65-53. Nice.

--- Arizona: I've reversed my thinking on this after a little more study. If the Wildcats beat Colorado in today's Pac-12 Tournament title game, which begins at 3 p.m., then it helps Washington's strength of schedule and gives the Huskies two wins against a team going to the NCAA tournament.

UPDATE - In progress now - Arizona leads Colorado 22-21 with five minutes in the half.

Make sure you continue to follow this StoryStream for more on Washington's bid to make it into the NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology 2012: The Washington Huskies, The Eye Test And Computers

2012-03-10T20:34:25Z

Every season of college basketball seems to always bring us a few bubble teams that sit right on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament. While some say a bid to the dance isn't that big of a deal and typically leads to an early round exit, look at a team like the VCU Rams. They were the final team selected to the field of 68 last season and ended up in the Final Four.

That team could be the Washington Huskies in 2012. They sit right on the bubble and seemingly every Bracketology update has them either just in or just out of the tournament.

This is not to suggest UW is going to make a Final Four run if they make the tournament, but you just never know with March Madness. And speaking of madness, let's take a look at why the Huskies are such a bubble team and why some folks are so split on the team.

As far as the "eye test" goes, the Huskies certainly pass.

They rank in the top-40 in terms of points-per-game and dominate the boards, ranking No. 5 overall in rebounds. UW features a ton of NBA talent as well; Tony Wroten is arguably the best player in the conference and can take over a game offensively, and Terrance Ross has the potential to become a star at the shooting guard position at the next level. C.J. Wilcox is a lethal shooter from outside, Aziz N'Diaye protects the rim with his size and length, and point guard Abdul Gaddy just makes everything flow on offense.

Defense has been a concern for Washington for most of the year and has cost them late in games, but their scoring ability can help cover up some of their deficiencies on the other end of the court.

The numbers do not side with the Huskies, though, and they may just keep them from dancing next week.

According to the very highly respected KENPOM ratings system -- a series of formulas that creates more of a balanced playing field for all teams, and values advanced metrics over your typical stats -- the Huskies are the 66th best team in the country. They rank 69th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and their RPI of 69 is not great.

So what does the Selection Committee value? The strength of a resumé or how a team looks while playing? The Huskies certainly have the talent to make a run to the Sweet 16, but as we all saw earlier this week when falling to a mediocre, CIT-bound Oregon St. Beavers team, they could just as easily be blown out in the opening round and sent home early.

Bracketology 2012: Washington Huskies The Truest 'Bubble Team' In The Country

2012-03-10T17:35:56Z

The Washington Huskies once looked like a team certain to go dancing at the 2012 NCAA Tournament, but back-to-back bad losses to the UCLA Bruins and Oregon St. Beavers have put their chances in serious jeopardy. Now the Pac-12 regular season champions are going to be doing some serious nail biting on Selection Sunday. With no games left to play, the Huskies have done all they can do to improve their resumé.

There is no doubt that UW sit squarely on the bubble. Just how much of a bubble team are they? Get this: in one bracket, they are included among the final four teams IN the tournament. In another, they are among the first four teams OUT of the dance.

This is why we love March Madness.

If you go by the eye test, the Huskies certainly pass. They feature two potential lottery picks in their starting lineup, have the size to matchup with just about any program in the nation and can score the ball at a high rate. When one takes a look at their body of work and a few of their computer numbers, Washington isn't nearly as attractive as other teams.

As for the projected bracket that has Washington in, Joe Lunardi of ESPN has the Huskies as a 12-seed playing in the play-in game to reach the first round. Chris Dobbertean of SB Nation has UW just missing the field of 68 in his latest update.

Selection Sunday is set to unveil the brackets at 3:00 p.m. PT.

For more on the Huskies, visit UW Dawg Pound. To talk all-things Pac-12 Tournament, head on over to Pacific Takes.

Bracketology 2012: Who Washington Fans Should Root For This Weekend

2012-03-10T13:00:56Z

The Washington Huskies couldn't make it past their first game in the 2012 Pac-12 Tournament, despite being the top seed and the regular-season conference champs. With the loss, they may have seen their hopes for the 2012 NCAA Tournament go up in smoke. With Friday's elimination of the Oregon St. Beavers, area fans are faced with the possibility that they may be watching the NCAA Tournament without a rooting interest.

Percy Allen of the Seattle Times reports that Washington coach Lorenzo Romar appeared KJR-AM Fiday morning to discuss the loss and he is not confident about the Huskies' chances of reaching the Tournament.

"The conference that you're in is irrelevant," Romar said. "They look at our body of work. the only argument is we won our league. There's other leagues that the winner wins the league with maybe 25 wins and they don't get invited to the big dance because the body of work of the entire league wasn't where it should be. Unfortunately for us, they're going to look at that entire body of work of the league and it could hurt us."

But all is not lost ... or at least, not yet. Bud Withers at the Seattle Times provided a handy guide to teams that Huskies fans Huskies fans need to be rooting for over the weekend. Here's a sampling:

Long Beach State. Pull for the guy, Dan Monson, who took the Washington job then bailed on it back in 2002. The 49ers are a big threat to make it at-large, so you don't need a Big West interloper winning that tournament.

It's a good read and well worth checking out. And it would be nice to have a reason to cheer for the Huskies (by proxy) for at least a few more days.

To discuss Washington's NCAA Tournament hopes with Husky fans, check out UW Dawg Pound. To talk about the NCAA tournament bracket, head to Blogging the Bracket.