SB Nation Seattle: All Posts by Ron Shah

Jose Fernandez's MLB Debut

2013-04-08T06:51:30Z

Jose Fernandez's MLB Debut

At 20 years of age, Jose Fernandez made the jump few do from High-A to the major leagues. But you wouldn't have been able to tell by his performance. Feedback welcome.

On Trevor Bauer's poor start

2013-04-07T10:07:40Z

With a week of baseball filed away, Justin Upton is playing extremely well and making the Arizona Diamondbacks look foolish in trading him. Trevor Bauer is doing the exact opposite, after the 22-year-old made his American League debut with the Cleveland Indians on Saturday.

An interesting decision by the organization considering Bauer didn't make the team out of spring training, instead being sent down to the minor leagues. But with Scott Kazmir landing on the disabled list, Cleveland suddenly needed a spot-start and called upon Bauer to give them one instead of throwing for their Triple-A affiliate in Columbus.

So, Bauer faced the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. The former No. 3 overall pick in the 2011 draft walked seven batters in five innings while striking out two and, thanks to good fortune, allowed just three runs on two hits. It could should have been a lot worse than that, but the Rays made two outs at the plate and couldn't further capitalize on Bauer's struggles.

The former Diamondback struggled mightily out of the gate, walking the very first four batters he faced before getting James Loney to pop out. Then this happened:

Bauer is very open when it comes to his pitching philosophy, such as how he warms up for a start. Well, another unique thing he did during Saturday's game is move around the rubber, as noted by Tommy Rancel (@TRancel) on Twitter.

If the batter is right-handed, Bauer would pitch from the first base side of the rubber. If the batter is left-handed, he would pitch from the third base side of the rubber. In a larger sense, this means Bauer is working on perfecting two different release points per outing. Quite the tall task, especially with someone who is already struggling with command.

Ignoring the results, the plan had been to send Trevor Bauer back to the minor leagues after his spot-start. He remains one of the more intriguing pitchers to follow given his unorthodox style and quality of pitches, but the question remains if he can put it all together at the major league level.

The former Diamondback struggled mightily out of the gate, walking the very first four batters he faced before getting James Loney to pop out. Then this happened:

Astros Stay Swinging and Missing

2013-04-07T07:56:44Z

In their first four games, Houston Astros batters have been fooled at the plate all too many times, striking out in nearly 42% of their combined plate appearances. Oh, and they don't have a pitcher due up to bat in case you forgot the Astros transitioned to the American League.

But if you compare the strikeout rates between pitchers and Astros batters, it would be hard to tell the difference. Pitchers have went down on three strikes in 42.0% of plate appearances compared to 41.8% of Houston batters. The kicker is those same pitchers have managed to walk in 4.2% of plate appearances versus Houston's 3.7% walk rate.

Believe it or not, the Astros won their first game handily over the Texas Rangers by the score of 8-2. They sent 35 batters to the plate that game, and 13 went down on strikes, or 37%.

After an off-day on Monday, the Houston Astros were given the task of facing Yu Darvish. They didn't do particularly well in any phase besides the category of ''breaking up perfect games with two outs in the bottom of the 9th inning''. 14 of the 27 batters became strikeout victims against Darvish and 15 of 29 overall.

Alexi Ogando and Rangers relievers that followed had similar success, striking out 15 of 33 Houston Astros batters.

Relatively speaking, Houston did better on Friday against Dan Straily and the Oakland Athletics relievers, managing to limit the strikeouts to 13 times in 37 plate appearances. Clearly, the A's weren't impressed, sending Straily down immediately after the game.

Are the Astros lacking aggressiveness at the plate? Do they need to swing more often in hopes avoiding two-strike counts? What the hell is going on?

For one, the Astros are seeing just 42% of total pitches inside the strike zone; a slightly higher rate than the Diamondbacks (41.1%) and Marlins (39.6%). But it doesn't matter whether the pitch is in the strike zone or not as Astros batters make contact with just 63.3% (dead last) of pitches, regardless of pitch location. It also doesn't help the Astros are swinging-and-missing on 19.20% of pitches. No one is in their neighborhood. Or zip code, city, county, state, etc. with the Angels' 13.10% a very, very distant second.

Usually when teams are whiffing at this alarming rate, some positive consequences would be power and walking.

As mentioned above, pitchers are walking more often than the Astros batters. Entering Saturday's slate of games, only the Rays are walking less frequently. As for the power, the Astros entered Saturday's games ranking 26th in ISO (Isolated Power). So even when one of Houston's batters are recording a hit, it's basically always a single (17 singles, 25 hits).

Believe it or not, the Astros won their first game handily over the Texas Rangers by the score of 8-2. They sent 35 batters to the plate that game, and 13 went down on strikes, or 37%.

Alexi Ogando and Rangers relievers that followed had similar success, striking out 15 of 33 Houston Astros batters.

Are the Astros lacking aggressiveness at the plate? Do they need to swing more often in hopes avoiding two-strike counts? What the hell is going on?

Usually when teams are whiffing at this alarming rate, some positive consequences would be power and walking.

Astros Stay Swinging and Missing

2013-04-07T07:54:50Z

Astros Stay Swinging and Missing

Mind-blowing Notes, statistics, comparisons regarding the Houston Astros strikeout problems entering Saturday's slate of games.

Monday's Opening Day Observations: CC Sabathia's Velocity and Red Sox Against Lefties

2013-04-02T08:26:20Z

Yesterday, I wrote about Houston Astros No. 1 starter Bud Norris after his outing on Sunday, which featured both the good and bad of what you can expect from Norris. There was nothing else on the slate for Sunday, but there was on Monday when 24 different teams opened up their season, providing viewers with 12 hours of baseball.

I watched several games on Monday, but the first one on was the Red Sox and Yankees, so here is one observation I made for each team on April 1, 2013.

1) CC Sabathia's Velocity

As a Yankees fan, it sure feels CC Sabathia often struggles on Opening Day and just generally early in the season as one of the starters who uses April to shake off the rust and build up arm strength. Monday marked the fifth Opening Day start for CC Sabathia as a Yankee and it went like three of the previous four outings in terms of results (see below); short and ineffective.

The poor results in Sabathia's first start of the season isn't surprising or a great cause of concern when put into perspective (see #2). But the lack of fastball velocity from Sabathia had some disconcerted following the game, including myself.

CC Sabathia's fastball was clocked at an average of 90 MPH via Brooks Baseball on Monday, which is 2 MPH slower than his fastball that sat 92 in his first start last season against the Tampa Bay Rays. When asked about it post-game, "I'm sure the velocity will keep coming back and the arm strength will keep building up the more I throw," Sabathia said. "Healthwise, I feel fine, elbow, shoulder and everything."

The good news is Sabathia got stronger as the game progressed on Monday in terms of fastball velocity instead of flat-lining or decreasing, which would have been a huge red flag. He also has the track record of being a slow starter, so he does get the benefit of the doubt for now.

It is worth mentioning Sabathia pitched a portion of the 2012 season injured and needed offseason arthroscopic surgery in his left elbow to remove a small bone spur in what Yankees GM Brian Cashman called a ''quick and minor cleanup''. To follow up, he only tossed 10 innings in spring training. In 2012, he threw 18 innings and made three more starts. I'm not a doctor nor smart enough to know if those aforementioned reasons are why Sabathia's velocity is two ticks slower than last year, so this is something to keep an eye on when he takes the mound for his second start of the season.

2) Boston is Trouble for Southpaws

If you didn't already know, you do now. The Boston Red Sox made life hell for Yankees ace CC Sabathia on Monday with their right-handed dominant lineup that features a handful of hitters that quite frankly mash southpaw pitching.

With David Ortiz sidelined, the Red Sox only have two everyday players that are specifically left-handed batters in rookie Jackie Bradley Jr. and Jacoby Ellsbury, who doesn't have huge platoon splits.

Meanwhile, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino have all raked against southpaws throughout their careers and do possess significant platoon splits. In limited time in 2012 as a rookie, Will Middlebrooks did just fine at the plate, but also hit southpaws significantly better than right-handed pitchers. Then there's Dustin Pedroia, who is just an excellent hitter against any kind of starter.

I watched several games on Monday, but the first one on was the Red Sox and Yankees, so here is one observation I made for each team on April 1, 2013.

1) CC Sabathia's Velocity

2) Boston is Trouble for Southpaws

The Curious Case of Bud Norris

2013-04-01T07:41:58Z

Bud Norris has spent the past 3.5 years as a member of the Houston Astros starting rotation, displaying the same weakness -- an inability to get through a lineup effectively for a third time (as seen below, via baseball-reference).

He's also shown the same strength over the past few years, posting an above-average strikeout rate and generating whiffs inside the strike zone. The good and the bad were on display Sunday against the Texas Rangers.

Norris threw 5⅔ innings of work, allowing two runs on five hits while walking three and striking out five. Norris earned all five strikeouts on swings and misses. In first two times through the lineup, Rangers batters went 2-for-16 while walking two times and striking out four times.

Then the sixth inning came and Norris was asked to face the Rangers lineup for a third time, starting with Ian Kinsler, who led the inning off with a five-pitch walk. Norris' fastball that touched 94 earlier in the game is now topping out at 90 (there's no way to tell if Norris completely lost faith in his fastball, but it appeared so, as he only used it once in the next ten pitches against opposing batters), but he was able to get Elvis Andrus to whiff on a slider for strike three.

Lance Berkman singled on a line drive to right off of a changeup, sending Kinsler to third base. With two on and one out, Texas' best hitter is at the plate in Adrian Beltre, who wastes no time by hammering at a first-pitch slider. Unfortunately for Beltre, Norris extended his glove (left arm) up and snared the liner for a second out.

Maybe it isn't all unravelling for Norris, but it would. The next two batters for Texas singled and suddenly the Rangers are only down two, forcing Astros manager Bo Porter to make a pitching change.

As aforementioned above, Norris may have lost faith in his fastball during the troubling sixth inning, rightfully so. Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, here's how his fastball velocity declined through the outing as the pitch count increased. It is just the first start of the season, so conditioning may be an issue for the 6'0'', 220 pound righty.

So, what is Norris? He's kind of a tweener. A two-pitch starting pitcher that throws a fastball/slider and the lack of a third pitch (changeup) doesn't help him when it comes to getting batters out for a third time, especially if he's topping out at 90 miles per hour on his heater. But his ability to work through a lineup twice makes him overqualified for a reliever role, at least with the way relievers are used now.

Oh, and he's Houston's No. 1 starter as of right now.

Originally appeared on Rontrarian Report.

Oh, and he's Houston's No. 1 starter as of right now.

Originally appeared on Rontrarian Report.

The Curious Case of Bud Norris

2013-04-01T07:38:17Z

The Curious Case of Bud Norris

Wrote this for my blog on Bud Norris, who showed the good and the bad on Sunday.

Top 100 MLB Prospects: 2013 Opening Day Assignments

2013-03-31T08:27:14Z

Top 100 MLB Prospects: 2013 Opening Day Assignments

Using a consensus top 100 prospects list between Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law and Baseball America, I added where each prospect will be beginning the 2013 season. Well, almost all of them.