NFL Odds: betting the Vegas lines for Week 4

Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

I don't always gamble on NFL games. But when I do, I win... Sometimes.

I'm a new writer here at SB Nation Seattle, so I haven't got any picks on record here, but you can look back at my Week 1 and Week 2 pick 'ems on MyHawkSoFly.com, in which I picked straight winners. My 10-6 record in back to back weeks might seem underwhelming but it was enough success to convince me I should step up the challenge a bit and pick against the Vegas lines instead.

See, when you look to pick a winner, it's often difficult to go against a clear favorite as you'll most often come out on top in those games. That leaves about half the games that are actually going to be worth picking, and I demand twice that! If your first reaction to this is to remind me I was barely above average in picking the first two weeks I don't want to hear it. I'm irrational and hormonal! I will not be soothed, you hear? I'm picking on spread and that's that.

For Week 3, I simply threw my picks up on Twitter as I was kind of between girlfriends as far as blogging homes goes. You can check my feed to see the picks - although I'd rather you didn't (yikes) - or just trust me when I say it was a pretty bloody Sunday.

Throwing your hard earned cash down on NFL games is something I don't usually advise - obviously: see above - but I'll tell you what, if you're going to do it you'd better make sure you have my advice. I may be terribly average but what I lack in accuracy I make up in gusto!

I'm crossing my fingers and throwing darts! Here comes Luke Skyhawker's week 4 wagers!

Baltimore favored by 12 against Cleveland
While Weeden's last couple of showings are a far cry from his 4 interception opener, I have to believe the Ravens defense will be in a position to force him into plenty of mistakes if Flacco and company give them an early lead. I've got five bucks that says Baltimore covers at home.

O/U 43 1/2 - And I'll take the over

New England favored by 4 in Buffalo
Man I don't even want to touch this game. New England has looked touchable (get your mind out of the gutter), and Ryan Fitzpatrick is a piece of poor quarterbacking on a paper plate. The Patriots have lost two consecutive close ones and I'd wager (no more than $5) that they won't leave another one in the hands of a kicker late. Pats cover.

O/U 52 - That's a ton of points, Patriots might be angry enough to hit it by themselves. Over.

Philadelphia favored by 2 against New York (Giants)
This is my mortgage maker baby! If someone tells you that they're favoring a team that can't keep the ball in their hands to save their lives that's getting a visit from a tough minded strip sacking defending Superbowl champion football team what do you do? ASK THEM HOW MUCH YOU'RE ALLOWED TO PUT DOWN! Giants beat the spread and win in Philly.

O/U 46 1/2 - Over, this could get real 'back and forthy' late once the Eagles have given New York an early lead.

San Fran favored by 4 in New York (Jets)
The 49ers are a good football team that got punked last week. I just don't like the Jets, and don't trust them anymore than I would a call girl with my wallet while I showered. 49ers cover, but not by much.

O/U 40 1/2 - Niners defense has been waiting for a chance to dominate, I think they do it this week and keep the score low. Under

Arizona favored by 6 1/2 against Miami
While I feel like the Cardinals are due for a loss here soon, I can't imagine it will come at the hands of the Dolphins. However, I'm going to put myself out on a limb and say the Dolphins will cover. A late score will bring things within a fieldgoal, but they'll get no closer

O/U 39 1/2 - Don't ever go over when an NFC West defense is involved... it might happen, but over the course of the year you'll lose well more than you'll win.

Seattle favored by 2 1/2 in St. Louis
I'd never bet against the Hawks. And my five dollars says that Cortland Finnegan should have a pretty tough time intimidating anyone on this Seahawks roster. I'm assuming the Seattle defensive backs will contain Danny Amendola long enough for Bruce to get in for another sack or two while the Hawks are cleaning up in the second half. Seattle covers

O/U 38 1/2 - Seattle is allowing 13 points per game, that means we're supposed to assume Seattle will score 26 if we want the over? Not the way they've been playing. I'll take the under.

Those are the games I got a good feeling about. I'll leave the rest of the games up to you to call in the comments.

Lines are as follows:

Green Bay by 7 1/2 at home against New Orleans
Detroit by 5 at home against Minnesota
Atlanta by 7 at home against Carolina
Kansas City by only 1 point at home against San Diego
Houston by 12 at home against Tennessee
Denver by 6 1/2 at home against Oakland
Cincinnati by 2 1/2 on the road against Jacksonville
Tampa Bay by 3 at home against Washington
Dallas by 3 1/2 at home against Chicago

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